Державний борг України: проблеми та перспективи управління

Abstract

У статті розглянуто державний борг України, проблеми та перспективи управління. Охарактеризовано активне управління державним боргом: операції з хеджування ризиків; зворотного викупу державних цінних паперів; їх дострокового погашення; обміну державних цінних паперів; операції зворотного репо. Зазначено, що є основним інструментом зменшення валютного й процентного ризиків державного боргу, а також ризику рефінансування. Проаналізовано структуру державного боргу України, динаміку дефіциту бюджету України, прогнозні обсяги погашення державного боргу України та обсяги державного боргу у зарубіжних країнах. Вказано, які інструменти боргової політики було запроваджено в практику управління державними боргами в кризовий період у різних групах країн. The article considers the public debt of Ukraine, problems and prospects of management. Active public debt management is characterized: risk hedging operations; repurchase of government securities; their early repayment; exchange of government securities; reverse repo operations. It is noted that it is the main tool for reducing currency and interest rate risks of public debt, as well as refinancing risk. The structure of the state debt of Ukraine, the dynamics of the budget deficit of Ukraine, the projected volumes of repayment of the state debt of Ukraine and the volumes of the state debt in foreign countries are analyzed. It is indicated which debt policy instruments were introduced into the practice of public debt management during the crisis period in different groups of countries.

Leading experts in the field of international finance have agreed that the level of public debt, the strength of the national economy to the effects of external shocks, as well as the course of economic policy and its assessment by market participants are key factors determining the likelihood of debt crisis debt problems in a particular country. The high level of public debt requires governments to include safeguards to curb high inflation and, in extreme cases, to apply debt restructuring schemes. The results of theoretical and empirical studies suggest that high public debt has a negative impact on economic growth due to the following factors: discouragement of private investment: risks of default and financial destabilization increase macroeconomic uncertainty, in addition, investors may suffer losses from excessive taxation , monetization of the budget deficit and expropriation of private property; increase in real interest rates: a high level of debt increases the size of the risk premium paid by sovereign borrowers, and high interest rates, in turn, inhibit economic growth. In international practice, public debt and public debt service are considered dangerous when approaching the point at which other states have historically been forced to suspend debt service and have asked creditors to restructure or write it off.